Coronavirus, Update April the 8th, Day 48

Coronavirus, Update April the 8th, Day 48

Here all the latest updated data, brought to you in record time! They are good, if you take them “cum grano salis” or with a grain of salt.
Total of 1089 new cases in Lombardy versus the 791 from yesterday although on double the number of tests. If I had to choose, today’s results are definitely better given that the proportion is lower. We must convince ourselves to continue the mapping of the virus among the health care workers, in the hospitals, nursing homes and extensively throughout the territories.
The testing must increase. We saw a drop in the number of deceased (238 in Lombardy, 542 throughout the country).

Key concepts to know

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Feedback from the hospitals & ICU’s are positive although they remain quite crowded (as we know from our graphs, we’re at the max load of the epidemic, the apex of the yellow curve) but at least the overall pressure is lessening. The emergency rooms are open to receiving the “green coded” cases not just the more serious ones. We are slowly returning to more manageable, albeit still difficult situation.
The increase in the number of positive cases, in the face of a higher number of tests is evident in several regions.
By now we have become accustomed to comparing these numbers, in fact we have a slide for this purpose, so do not panic. Ditto when looking at the numbers of the provinces, for example the red flags seen across Liguria, it’s the price they pay for finally digesting the backlog (all those cases waiting to be verified, finally returning to a normal level).
In fact, the region is actually doing better than yesterday, the percent increase is moving towards the national average which actually showed a slight bump higher to 2.8 (again, the impact of 50,000 tests given in last 24 hours).
I would have you note that the percentage increase in the numbers of cases gives us an idea of the descending slope of the purple curve in the projection slide, which we all want to go to zero as soon as possible. It’s also crucial to also follow the rapport with the number of people healed as this will determine how long it will take the hospitals to move out of the “full load” phase (take the Marche region which shows a larger increase in new cases than other regions but which has already inverted the in/out ratio). The details for the various provinces can be found in the “traffic light” slide along with graphs found at the bottom (if there is boom in vacation reservations in Campobasso, it will be thanks to me, this much is certain).
The only troublesome data is not find in the slides: it’s the widespread loosening of the lockdown, at least in terms of the increase mobility of people. Is this also your impression? Give us feedback for the various regions to help us understand if this is truly the case.
Hugs to all,

 

Dott. Paolo Spada
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