Today’s news is really positive, for both Lombardy and the rest of Italy, with very few exceptions.
New cases steeply dropped compared to prior days and, for the first time, the IN/OUT balance in Lombardy has inverted, in line with my estimates (the apex in the yellow curve showing when the pressure on the health system is at its peak). I have no illusions, in the next few days it is still possible to experience new bumps but the overall message is clearly positive. Unfortunately, the number of deaths is still quite remarkable.
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Positive feedbacks from all the provinces in Lombardy, Emilia Romagna, but also many regions in Central and Southern Italy, as you can see from the “traffic lights” slide. Some further confirmations also arrive from Piemonte, actually practically all the regions of the country with the exception of Liguria, Trentino and Abruzzo whose numbers are still bucking the positive trend. The overall number for Italy dropped to 2.3
I will anticipate your question: Yes, it’s premature to adjust the estimates in our forecast lower for the coming weeks. Keep in mind, the results we’re seeing in these days are the fruit of the strong isolations measures taken a two weeks ago. We must have faith that these measures have been maintained even over the last days. Let’s be optimistic.
Regarding the reliability of the data: amid the uncertainty of the situation, I have to warn you that, besides the well known “representation limits” of the real number of new cases (of which new confirmed cases are still a small %) and the relevant underestimation of the deaths number (thousands of them have not been registered), doubts remain about the method used to calculate the number of people who have been declared healed. In fact, a few days ago, the Fondazione GIMBE reported the numbers of patients healed are inconsistent across regions. Some users here have noted that during their updates, the Regione Lombardia includes in their total of people healed only the patients that have been released from the hospital or E.R. (regardless of the presence of a “confirmation test”) excluding all the patients that have recovered in self isolation at home, with no access to the hospital.
Some regions only include the so-called “virologically recovered patients” (2 negative tests in a 24hr period, as specified by WHO), others include the ones still waiting for the outcomes of the second test, and yet others include all the “clinically recovered patients”. We are still waiting for some clarification on this front and in the meanwhile we’ll make do with what we have.
We’ll try to be patient and not complain too much……
After all, isn’t this what we have been doing for weeks now?
Dott. Paolo Spada
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