Coronavirus, Update April the 6th, Day 46

Coronavirus, Update April the 6th, Day 46

We remain on the path of reducing the daily number of infections.
It’s reflected across the most of the nation, more so than Lombardy where it was visible in terms of absolute numbers but not in proportion to the number of tests given (they showed a net drop, same for Veneto and Emilia Romagna regions). You will find a new graph which highlights the relation between cases and number of tests, region per region: the rapport is not always direct, in fact I’ve always told readers to avoid looking for a set mathematical formula although undoubtedly the numbers of tests has to be taken in to consideration in order to explain, at least in part, the variability at times extreme, in the data contained in the purple part of the graph.

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It would be more telling to judge the average or the difference over three days, which we are also including in the slides.
Confirming the positive trend, is the much appreciated “traffic light” slide, which shows numbers & colors reflecting widespread improvement, so much so that the percentage increase of cases in Italy showed a drop to 2.8 in the last 24 hours. Single cases should remain under observation but they are almost always of small size in terms of absolute numbers. If anything, we should take comfort that several of the big cities such as Torino, Firenze, Roma, Napoli and even Milano are all showing a more positive trend. Hospital admissions remain stable, the amount of domestic isolations increased while the number of patients in ICU decreased.
Unfortunately, the number of deceased is less reassuring, with well over 600, with almost half of them in Lombardy. We know (and have always said) that this will be the last number to drop, we would to think of this as a page of the past which will not return. Unfortunately we are still in the midst of it: the many dead that we still see, the open wound of silent tragedy not yet fully told nor fully understood. It’s worth considering: yesterday’s obituaries in Bergamo were five and half pages long.
If we have one good reason to continue the battle to contain this epidemic, it’s that this is, above all, a fight to defend the elderly,the frail. This is the most noble action a society can take, both in good times and in times of need. Our efforts are being rewarded, we need to insist as our goal is within sight.
I would like to conclude by saying thanks to all who read, share, and actively participate with your questions & opinions. Not only for the warm encouragement to continue this work, despite it’s modest limits, but also for your exemplary behavior. The hundreds of comments each day are always polite, respectful, and mutually supportive. Given this is a spontaneous community, open and without filters, I find great comfort to see all the good in people, especially in the moment of greatest need.

Have a good evening,

Dott. Paolo Spada
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