Coronavirus, Update April 10th, Day 50

Coronavirus, Update April 10th, Day 50

The situation is slightly better than yesterday.

In Lombardy, 1246 new cases vs 1388 yesterday, with the same number of tests.

In Italy almost 4000 new cases.

We see a slight drop in the number of deceased in Lombardy but the overall number remains high (570).

Little change in regards to the situation with the hospitals: a slight drop in new admissions, a more consistent drop relatively speaking for the intensive care units.

In short, I will leave it to you to decide if the news is a slight improvement OR the improvement is not enough.

Key concepts to know

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The pause of the last three days is quite visible in the purple graph even when taken in to account the number of tests (not even that alibi works this time around)

In the “traffic light” slide we find some comforting signs: the overall number for Italy drops to 2.8 from an average of 2.9 for the last three days. Not exactly cause to jump for joy, especially for a country that sorely needs to find a way to restart, but it is what it is.
For the rest, we see more yellow-red areas than is necessary (in fact I would appreciate any comments from readers in those regions to understand better the situation).  And for the true fans: Isernia is the new Campobasso.

Just so we understand each other, as I don’t want to be mistaken for a pessimist.  Some days ago, we went thru a similar period where we were not seeing any obvious improvement  We voiced our complaints and the improvement eventually arrived. It will be the case again, I am sure of it.

I am starting to think that the people can make more of a difference, now more than ever.  If there is something I (and you, the reader) can do, now is the time to do it.

The Lombardy region confirmed what we were saying among ourselves: people are more moving around more than ever. We would like to see action taken on this front.
Can we do something more?  Let more people know?
We have to be careful because behind this widespread apathy, the house is burning.
This is the problem.  

 A question I’m seeing frequently about the virus (yes, him) from many of you:  has it become less aggressive?  I would like to be clear on this. The answer is no.  It is us who are limiting the opportunity to be infected.  The Instituto Superiore di Sanita is reporting that the R0 of the epidemic has dropped below 1, which is really good news. But it should be clear that the coronavirus, like every virus, has a potential R0 (just to remind you, it is the average number of people which can be infected by a single person with the virus) of roughly 2.5.   There are viruses which are much worse, for example measles has an R0 of 10 (exactly why we vaccinate our children).
It should be absolutely clear: if we  lift the foot which is crushing the disease, lessening the measures of social distancing: the fateful number would quickly return to its natural value and the epidemic would return with full force.

If you come across an infected person, he or she does not know it and you have the same probability of being infected which you had a month ago. No more, no less while the amount people sick is more numerous than ever: there have never been as many we have in this moment.

What do you say?  Should we stay home?

It’s worth saying again, to everyone.  

Dott. Paolo Spada
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